#172: SCOTUS, You’re a Firecracker, Baby

Kristen and special guest Patrick Ruffini discuss SCOTUS, Roe v Wade, midterm elections, and public opinion on Supreme Court rulings.

Poll of the Week: Axios/ SurveyMonkey Poll “Democrats’ Senate dreams slip away”
Survey Monkey write-up: “Senate battleground polls show Democrats in a tight spot”

Criticism: Nate Silver (Twitter): The Axios treatment of this poll is basically “How to repeat all the errors the media made when covering polls in 2016, in one chart”. But wait until we focus on likely voters.

Changing view of SCOTUS
Pew Research: Interpreting Constitution in current times vs Originalists. Are these questions answered by what view will produce the political outcome respondents want? In a vacuum? Growing share of Americans say Supreme Court should base its rulings on what Constitution means today.
5 facts about the Supreme Court

American Voters Support Roe V. Wade 2-1: Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds
Dem Candidates Up 9 Points In U.S. House Races

Roe v Wade and abortion
So many ways to ask the question. Pretty clear majorities say don’t overturn. Pollsters can frame questions to take advantage of affirmation bias.

What the polls say about Americans, abortion, and the Supreme Court
There are so many other issues beyond Roe.

How will this influence people’s midterm votes?
Democrats hope Kennedy’s retirement will make the courts a galvanizing issue for their voters. Polling data shows Republicans turned out for Trump in 2016 because of the Supreme Court. A quarter of Republicans voted for Trump to get Supreme Court picks — and it paid off.

2018 Generic Congressional Vote
Trump Job Approval

Americans Are Having Fewer Babies. They Told Us Why.
It’s not that they’re selfish, they just can’t afford it. Where is infertility on this list?

POLL: Did you make it out to see fireworks this Fourth of July holiday? We want our fireworks in our backyard or in the Supreme Court debate.

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The Pollsters

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