#42: The Deadliest Trump

“From Alaska’s polling challenges to Trump’s controversial data use and Cruz’s Iowa rise, this week’s episode unpacks it all.”

The Deadliest Trump: Episode #42 Recap

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Kristen Reports from Alaska

Kristen: “Polling in Alaska comes with unique challenges, but it’s come a long way since Margie’s research trips 20 years ago.”

Margie: “The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight provide valuable insights into why Alaska is tricky for pollsters.”

Trump & Muslims

Margie: “Trump’s use of polling to justify his controversial policy proposals raises questions about data interpretation. CNN and the Washington Post explore his citations, while Pew data provides a broader perspective on Muslim attitudes worldwide.”

Cruz Cruises

Kristen: “Cruz’s recent rise in Iowa, as shown in Monmouth’s poll, may have prompted Trump’s controversial statements. Politico and CNN polls highlight the shifting dynamics in the GOP race.”

Campaign Finance Reform

Margie: “New Pew data shows campaign finance reform resonates across party lines, but not everyone prioritizes it as a single-issue vote.”

UK Polling: What Went Wrong?

Kristen: “YouGov’s report on their errors in predicting the Conservative win in the UK election sheds light on polling challenges.”

Key Findings

• Polling data should not be used to justify unconstitutional policies, as Trump’s interpretations show.
• Cruz’s Iowa surge adds volatility to the GOP race, with shifting dynamics reflected in national and state polls.
• Campaign finance reform remains a bipartisan concern, though it’s not often a single-issue priority.
• UK polling errors underline the complexities of accurate prediction in volatile political climates.

Listen to the Full Episode

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